MacProbe Value

16" M1 Pro 16GB/512GB (2021)

Fair value $721 · great deal under $676

Best deal right now Fair Value
$720 at fair value
refurbished · seller 99.6% of 187,780 ratings · eBay Money Back Guarantee · seen 12 min ago
View on eBay →

Market value, observed returns-backed offers, and whether prices are likely to change.

Confidence: high (100%)Liquidity: very liquid
Representative 16-inch MacBook Pro stock render

Representative stock render — not the listing unit. 3D model MacBook Pro M3 16″ by jackbaeten · CC BY 4.0 · modified by MacProbe (materials, lighting, crop)

Cheapest returns-backed unit observed
$650
eBay Refurbished · check availability · last seen 1h ago (). Compare this protected option before paying more for a used unit. Availability may have changed.
New, street
None found
checked today
Apple list
$2,499
Typical sale
$721
Sells in
~8 days
Sold, 30d
30
Great Deal
$676
Act quickly below this level.
Fair Value
$721
MacProbe's current midpoint.
Upper used range
$732
Market range, not a purchase recommendation.
Overpriced
$743
Usually wait or negotiate.

Live deals for 16" M1 Pro 16GB/512GB (2021)

Real listings from eBay, Apple Refurb, and Best Buy, judged against the fair-value band above. Listings whose title names a fault are left out.

See all live deals → How is the fair value calculated?

Get an email when one lists under $676

We check eBay, Apple Refurb and Best Buy every 15 minutes. When a 16" M1 Pro 16GB/512GB (2021) lists at or below the Great Deal price, we send you one email. Then the alert ends. Nothing else is sent.

Will it get cheaper?

$781 median expected asking price in 7 days · $749–807

This is an asking price, so it usually sits above the fair value below, which is what machines actually sell for. Compare it with the listings you see.

Asking prices are holding steady. The band is a P25–P75 range, so it should contain the outcome about half the time — we have hit 55% across 406 graded forecasts. Confidence: low.

Weekly market history

Weekly median of distinct used listings (asks). Not confirmed sales. 16 wk · latest n=13

$0.6k$0.7k$0.7k$0.8k$0.8k Jul 13Aug 3Aug 24Sep 14Oct 5Oct 26

Mostly eBay (100% of weekly item contributions). P25–P75 band is the weekly item distribution. Missing weeks are omitted, not filled in. Forecasts are not shown.

Market evidence

30-day sold
30
Avg sold $721 · 8 days listed
Active supply
8
Floor $720 · avg ask $808
Used range
$676-732
Typical target range for clean used listings.
Refurb range
$721-743
Expected premium for safer refurb sellers.

Related market pages

MacBook Pro Market Index · M3 vs M4 vs M5 comparison

Last updated: 2026-10-27 08:02 UTC · Informational only. Always verify listing condition and seller reliability before purchasing.