MacProbe Value

16" M3 Max 48GB/1TB (2023)

Fair value $2,208 · great deal under $2,000

Lowest live price Overpriced
$2,300 $92 over fair value
used · seller 100% of 543 ratings · eBay Money Back Guarantee · seen 42 min ago
View on eBay →

Market value, observed returns-backed offers, and whether prices are likely to change.

Confidence: high (92%)Liquidity: very liquid
Representative 16-inch MacBook Pro stock render

Representative stock render — not the listing unit. 3D model MacBook Pro M3 16″ by jackbaeten · CC BY 4.0 · modified by MacProbe (materials, lighting, crop)

Cheapest returns-backed unit observed
$2,400
eBay Refurbished · check availability · last seen less than an hour ago (). Above market range — this offer is not a recommended buying price. Availability may have changed.
New, street
Not checked yet
Apple list
$3,999
Typical sale
$2,208
Sells in
~6 days
Sold, 30d
14
Great Deal
$2,000
Act quickly below this level.
Fair Value
$2,208
MacProbe's current midpoint.
Upper used range
$2,254
Market range, not a purchase recommendation.
Overpriced
$2,299
Usually wait or negotiate.

Live deals for 16" M3 Max 48GB/1TB (2023)

Real listings from eBay, Apple Refurb, and Best Buy, judged against the fair-value band above. Listings whose title names a fault are left out.

See all live deals → How is the fair value calculated?

Get an email when one lists under $2,000

We check eBay, Apple Refurb and Best Buy every 15 minutes. When a 16" M3 Max 48GB/1TB (2023) lists at or below the Great Deal price, we send you one email. Then the alert ends. Nothing else is sent.

Will it get cheaper?

$2,423 median expected asking price in 7 days · $2,361–2,659

This is an asking price, so it usually sits above the fair value below, which is what machines actually sell for. Compare it with the listings you see.

Asking prices are holding steady. The band is a P25–P75 range, so it should contain the outcome about half the time — we have hit 55% across 406 graded forecasts. Confidence: medium.

Weekly market history

Weekly median of distinct used listings (asks). Not confirmed sales. 13 wk · latest n=6

$2.1k$2.4k$2.6k$2.9k$3.2k Jul 27Aug 17Aug 31Sep 14Sep 28Oct 12Oct 26

Mostly eBay (100% of weekly item contributions). P25–P75 band is the weekly item distribution. Missing weeks are omitted, not filled in. Forecasts are not shown.

Market evidence

30-day sold
14
Avg sold $2,208 · 6 days listed
Active supply
8
Floor $2,300 · avg ask $2,557
Used range
$2,000-2,254
Typical target range for clean used listings.
Refurb range
$2,208-2,299
Expected premium for safer refurb sellers.

Related market pages

MacBook Pro Market Index · M3 vs M4 vs M5 comparison

Last updated: 2026-10-27 08:02 UTC · Informational only. Always verify listing condition and seller reliability before purchasing.